In the last 10 days, team Obama has gone on the offensive, using a two pronged issue strategy: one economic, and one social, that for about 48 hours put the Romney campaign on its heels. When a campaign moves this aggressively they are usually looking at polling that we don’t see, and that polling most assuredly showed a deteriorating electoral outlook. More problematic for the President’s campaign, the data [probably also] shows a rehabilitated Romney that has solidified his position with Republicans and begun to capture a large portion of Independents. It is not panic time, but for the Obama campaign, the time to paint Romney is now.

This morning, a couple of public polls give us some insight into what team Obama is seeing. The first, a new USA Today/Gallup poll released today showed that 71% of adults rate economic conditions in the country as poor. Additionally, 55% said that the economy would get better next year if Romney was elected President, while only 46% said the same if Obama is re-elected. Importantly, Romney’s favorable/unfavorable is 50% to 41%. This is a dramatic improvement from 2 months ago when his unfavorable rating was well above 50%.

Also, a new CBS/NYT re-contact poll conducted over the weekend showed that 67% believe the President’s announcement in support of gay marriage was done for political reasons, while only 24% said that he did it because he thought it was right. That means that even a majority of those that support gay marriage, think the President did it for electoral reasons. Even more of an issue is the fact that 16% said that the President’s support of gay marriage made them more likely to vote for him in November while 26% said less likely. Most (57%) said the issue would have no effect on their vote.

Although this survey has a small sample size and is only among adults, rather than frequent voters, the takeaway suggests that the issue is less of a vote generator for the President than the average person would guess from watching the media reaction the last 4 days.

Here is our up to the minute take on the status of the campaign:

1. The Obama campaign has decided to try to cut the legs right out from under Romney by going after his two supposed strengths: as someone who can create jobs and a political moderate. If executed correctly, it may turn out to be a smart strategy. To go after Romney on jobs, Bain is back and in a big way. A new two-minute Obama campaign TV ad that hits Romney for killing jobs while at Bain, is airing in key swing states such as Ohio, Iowa and Virginia. My guess is that team Obama had polling that reflected a USA Today/Gallup poll last week which showed that Romney was beating the President on handling the economy and decided to go straight at the issue. The question is whether Romney can articulate his faith in free enterprise as a counterpoint to the President’s populist message. On the second front, whether it was coordinated or not, last week’s gay marriage announcement and the corresponding media examination of a potential Romney high school bullying issue was an attempt to push the GOP candidate to the right at the exact time when he most wanted to tack to the middle. The problem for the Obama campaign is that there needs to be a track record of Romney intolerance on this issue and my sense is that it doesn’t exist, and that the message will be hard to sustain if there is not.
2. On the gay marriage issue, while it remains to be seen where this nets out from a political perspective, the fact is that it does give some energy to a GOP base that had been flagging. Yes, national opinion has been steadily trending toward support in recent years, with roughly half of Americans supporting legal gay marriage. But as many have pointed out, in many key swing states in 2012 such as Virginia and Ohio, the majority of voters feel gay marriage should remain illegal (Colorado is the one exception). So while the issue energizes liberals as well, our sense is that Romney may have needed it more. The problem for Romney is that he will take a hit with Independents if there is a sustained focus on social issues. From the Romney perspective, this has to be over and done with as quickly as possible, while team Obama would very much like to keep the issue alive.
3. Speaking of Independents, they are still a big problem for Obama and part of the reason for the above cited strategy. According to the latest weekly Gallup tracking poll, only 43% of Indies approve of the President’s job performance. Among “pure Independents”, taking out those that lean either Democrat or Republican, his job approval number is an abysmal 33%. The Obama campaign is aiming straight at Independents when they say that Romney is part of the extreme elements of the political right.
4. The near term global economic outlook is hugely problematic for the President. It is now very likely that Greece will default and this will cause considerable panic in world markets. While that effect may be temporary, it could not come at a worse time for the Obama administration. This on the heels of last week’s unseating of French President Sarkozy, the partial nationalization of Spanish bank Bankia and Chancellor Merkel’s weakening political position suggests an unsteady situation. Europe’s problems will not likely sink the U.S. economy but it will impact the market and overall sentiment. Obama needs optimism but he is unlikely to get any from Europe.
5. The gender gap cuts two ways. Yes, the President enjoys a substantial lead among women (as many as 12 points in the latest Gallup poll) but Romney is much stronger among men (an 8 point lead in the same survey). While the Obama campaign is busy trying to drive a wedge between Romney and women, they should not lose sight of their own gender gap problem. Obama has a “man” problem and it is tied to spending and taxes. The Romney campaign will spend a lot of time in the coming months trying to exploit this issue.
6. Obama the neophyte is ancient history: three-in-five voters see him as the more experienced candidate. In a recent NBC/WSJ poll, 45% of voters said “knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency” better describes Obama and just 30% of voters chose Romney. Obama is also more widely perceived as being a “good commander-in-chief” (43% vs. 33%). In 2008, Obama’s inexperience was a major liability but after three-plus years in the White House, voters consider him experienced. Is this ultimately something that the Obama team ends up using against Romney? That would be ironic.
7. Team Romney want this election to be a choice, therefore, Romney must now make the case for voters to choose him over Obama. Analysis by AEI of a number of publically-released polls shows voters trust Obama at least as much as Romney to handle most issues, including some traditional Republican strong suits such as foreign policy and taxation. There is also an 18-point gap in likability (81% think Obama is likable, vs. 63% for Romney) and a 13-point gap in whether he is “someone I can relate to” (47% vs 34%). If Romney can’t win on the strength of his personal qualities he will need to start articulating to voters how his policies will improve on Obama’s.

While much of the above suggests things have swung toward Romney the last 30-60 days, he is still the underdog because of the electoral college map. The map is Obama’s friend. Analyses may vary on this, but we project that the President probably starts with approximately 215-230 secure electoral votes. Next week we will roll-out our map and start to examine polling in the key swing states.

Thanks to John Zirinsky and Allison Quigley for their insights and contributions to this election monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

(Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008 but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.)

Marketing to moms is far more complex today than it was just a decade ago, with new segments, characteristics, and attributes you may not even be aware of. Making assumptions about how moms today think, feel, shop, work, live, communicate and make decisions can be costly.

Case in point: U.S. moms spend $2.1 trillion each year and control 80% of household spending, yet 60% of them feel that marketers are ignoring their needs and 73% feel that advertisers don’t understand what it’s like to be a mom.* (Shocking, itn’t it?)

In honor of all mothers, we’ve spent some time finding out who moms really are – and the results just might surprise you.

Being a Mom

What is it really like to be a mom? Only a mother knows, so we’ve turned to the moms in our PluggedIN Nation community to uncover the motivations, inspirations, and challenges they face. And yes, we asked them for their Mother’s Day wish list too, because we haven’t forgotten all you last minute shoppers! Read more

Once a Mother, Always a Mother

Everyone knows that it’s a grandmother’s job to spoil her grandchildren. But times are changing and the role of mother no longer ends when you become a grandmother. As a result of this change in the family structure, the same grandmothers whose role was to spoil and return, must now parent. This infographic presents some of the data from our Modern Family study, specifically focusing on the changing role of grandmothers. Read more

Look Who’s Tweeting About Moms

During the week leading up to Mother’s Day, people are tweeting nearly 50% more tweets per hour about mothers, but there’s one particular mom who’s getting a lot of attention. The top 4 most retweeted tweets about Mother’s Day were all from Justin Bieber. It seems this pop sensation hasn’t forgotten that it’s time for his mom to be in the spotlight. Bieber tweeted, “think im gonna release #TurnToYOU for my mom this friday for mother’s day weekend. the proceeds will go to help other single moms. Thanks”, sparking an est. 21,000+ retweets. Read More

*Source: http://www.m2moms.com/[/info]

Every morning Josie wakes up and checks her email, texts, Facebook newsfeed and finally, her bank balances – all online. She worries about her grandchildren – college expenses, finding jobs, their health, safety, love lives and happiness.  She is carefully saving for one grandchild’s college tuition from her small monthly Social Security check and her pension disbursements.  She made this commitment to supplement the ever increasing education costs with a $10,000 a year gift of love for an education that was never within her reach.

Josie is 82 years old, born in 1930.  A mother and grandmother representative of today’s modern family where the roles and responsibilities of the traditional mom and the power of the purse are divided and driven by the many rather than the one.  Things have changed and grandmothers know this.

Marketing to the Modern Family – a new study with insights about marketing to the family of the future  – found that Grandmothers who have at least some involvement in their grandchildren’s lives are more likely than mothers or fathers to agree that the traditional family structure has changed significantly since they were a child (81% vs. 71% mothers and 74% fathers).

The study also revealed that today’s grandmothers have taken on some of the roles of both mother and father. About a third of the grandmothers (29%) feel they are raising the children, and thirteen percent feel they fill the family role as the mother and key nurturer.  One out of three grandmothers say that they are responsible for taking care of sick children (37%), cooking (34%), buying clothes (33%), groceries (36%) and cars (30%), buying OTC medications (32%), choosing leisure activities (34%) and entertainment (35%), and children’s education (28%).

Having an ‘empty nest’ has become much less common than it was just a decade ago, and it’s the Grandmothers who are most likely to feel that their children will return home after college (50%).  What has driven this change is an experience not unlike that experienced by the grandmothers themselves, raised as children in the depression. At its root, grandmothers feel that the economy is the most likely driving this change in the family structure. In fact, nearly all (85%) say the economy in recent years is having an impact on parents’ traditional roles. In the future, 80% believe that extended families will be more prevalent than they are currently.

That said, they change with the times and grey technology rules. Grandmothers feel that technology allows them to shop in smarter ways (71%), allows them to save money (63%), makes children smarter (60%) and helps them keep in tune with their community (51%). Grandmothers, themselves, spend on average 20 hours a week online with 70% connecting with friends and family.

And so Josie, like her peers plays an ever increasing important role, albeit in her own quiet way and online. To her, and the many like her- a tribute on Mother’s Day is well deserved.

About the Survey:
StrategyOne conducted a national online survey between August 1st – August 9th, 2011 among a nationally representative sample of 1,005 Mothers, 505 Fathers, 105 Grandmothers, 205 Lesbian Mothers, 152 Gay Fathers, 255 Hispanic Mothers, and 255 Black Mothers. Data from mothers was weighted to ensure that the sample is census representative for age and ethnicity. The survey was approximately 16 minutes in length. The sample error is +/- 3% at a 95% confidence level.

In Part 2, we have taken a closer look at the data, specifically comparing  U.S. Grocery Shopper and Washington, DC Policy Elite opinions.

Contact Jason McGrath with any questions.

Mitt Romney may have rescued his fight for the nomination in Michigan with a narrow 3 point win on February 28th, but it was his nearly 12 point blow-out of Rick Santorum in Illinois on March 20th that probably ended the GOP nomination battle. What has gone unreported is that the President has been losing ground to Romney ever since that Illinois contest. So much so, that by the time Rick Santorum took to the podium on April 10th and announced he was suspending his campaign for the GOP nomination, Romney was moving close to near vote share parity with the President.

In the 2 weeks since that announcement, we have had muddled but largely negative economic news, government scandals and an emergent Mitt Romney. While there will be plenty of twists and turns in this campaign, we may look back at the moments before Romney’s big victory in Illinois as the high water mark of the Obama re-election campaign.

Let’s get straight to the head to head polling data and what we think it means. We took all public and private polling data since January of this year and plotted a regression trend line.

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama began the year virtually tied, but Romney’s net standing against the President eroded as the divisive primary season wore on. Romney reached his lowest ebb, trailing Obama by nearly six points, in early March–but his subsequent success in knocking out Rick Santorum has also helped close the gap against the President. The two are again back to approximate parity.

Obviously, at this point we are too far out to project, but the trend is in Romney’s favor and he has had this momentum for 6 weeks.

Here is our take on the current political environment:

• The GSA and Secret Service scandals are taking a toll on the President’s re-election three ways; 1) they send a signal to voters that the administration is not on top of things (further eroding their sense that the President’s team is competent, 2) it is a distraction that detracts from the White House messaging strategy and 3) it further erodes trust in public institutions at a time of extremely high political alienation. None of this is good for a President running for re-election.
• The economy continues to stagnate and this is hugely problematic for the White House. In our last edition, we noted some increasing signs of green shoots in the U.S. economy, particularly in the unemployment report. However, data released over the last month show a possible slowdown in this recovery already. Ongoing concerns about Europe, rising gas prices and a rise in new jobless claims are all troubling. A stalled recovery continues to be the biggest obstacle to Obama’s re-election. Additionally, we are experiencing the same Spring slowdown that appears to be the new normal in housing markets that had appeared to hit bottom this winter. Student loans are another troubling sector, where debt continues to compound to all-time highs.
• This is not 1984. And it is not even close. For a while late last year and early this spring, some pundits suggested that the Obama recovery may look a lot like Reagan’s. Wrong. As the charts below show, this economic recovery is staggeringly slow compared to the one nearly 30 years ago. For example, GDP growth the last two quarters of 1983 were 5 to 6 times greater than the same period in 2011.

Similarly, job growth in the second half of 1983 was 2 to 3 times greater than in 2011.

• Enthusiasm for Obama may be receding among young voters. A recent Public Religion Institue/Georgetown University study found 18 – 24 year-olds do prefer Obama over a generic Republican, 48% – 41%. Still, this is a far different result than the 2008 election, where Obama did historically well among young voters, besting McCain 66% 32% among 18 – 29 year-olds. Additionally, the favorability gap between Obama and Romney is closing: 52% of young adults in the survey had a favorable impression of Obama and 32% had a favorable impression of Romney. Note that horserace data for Obama vs. Romney isn’t available from this survey fielded in March.

• President Obama lost Independents in 2010 and they have not come back. Like the last 3 elections, the key to this one will be Independents/swing voters. The President lost a sizable chunk of these voters with health care reform and a stagnant economy in late 2009. There is nothing in the data to suggest they are likely to move back to the President. For this reason, his overall approval rating remains stuck in the 44-48% range.

On the other hand, the President has some advantages:

• He has more money. As Saturday’s Washington Post story shows, the President has a large cash advantage (10 times) over Romney. Now, the GOP nominee will likely do well on the super Pac side but is unlikely to bridge the gap.
• He is the President. As the NYT reported yesterday, there are distinct advantages to being POTUS and running for re-election. Not the least of which is blurring the lines between presidential visits to key swing states and political ones.
• He is more popular. The President has an enormous advantage in terms of personal popularity over Governor Romney. According to last week’s WSJ/NBC News Poll, the President leads Romney by 30 points on “likability” and 25 points on “cares about average people”. Romney needs to close the gap on these. He can win if the gap is 10 points but not if it is 30.

Our sense is that this race is 50/50 at this point in time. Both candidates are pretty weak. The advantage for the President is that Romney has high unfavorables (worst rating for any party nominee in nearly 30 years). The advantage for Romney is that 2012 remains an issue election rather than a personality one. Additionally, there is every indication that voters will look at this as a referendum on the President rather than a choice between two visions. That is why Romney needs a future oriented narrative that clearly contrasts him with the President. We will know how well that is working in the weeks ahead.

Special thanks to John Zirinsky, Chris Blunt and Allison Quigley for their insights and contributions to this election monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

(Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008 but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.)

This infographic presents some of the data about how consumers view the issues surrounding the U.S. supply chain.

Contact Jason McGrath with any questions.

In honor of the first (real) day of the NCAA Tournament we’ve analyzed Twitter conversations from 11/7/11 through 3/12/12 to find out what people are saying about the eight coaches whose teams are seeded #1 or #2 in the 2012 NCAA tournament.

Take a look at our leader board:

• Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski leading all coaches with more than 226,000 tweets
• Michigan State’s Tom Izzo leading all coaches with 44% positive tweets
• Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim leading all coaches with 28% negative tweets

Let us know, who’s at the top of your March Madness bracket?

And if you haven’t yet filled out a bracket, then you still have time. Yahoo’s Bracket Challenge is right here.

There is a lot of buzz lately about Pinterest. There are great tutorials on how to use Pinterest (Mashable has a nice tutorial here), ideas on how brands can capitalize on Pinterest (already been done), or even ways to use Pinterest as basic secondary research (you can find that here). As a qualitative researcher, I’m naturally curious about how Pinterest could become a valuable tool for qualitative work.

I am a total Pinterest addict. I was an early adopter – I am the type of person who had folders on my computer full of images I liked, recipes, and craft ideas. Pinterest was MADE for someone like me.

By far, my most popular Pinterest board is my board on food. It has over 250 recipes posted to it, and over 200 followers. Its been interesting to watch as certain pins have their ’15 minutes’ – Avocado, Cream Cheese, and Salsa Puff Pastries had a short brush with fame, as did a Jalapeno Popper Grilled Cheese. They caught like wildfire for a day or two and then died off, silent ever since.

But even more interesting are the pins that have staying power. They get re-pinned again and again, maintaining steady popularity over time. Here are a few actual examples:

Most of my pins have less than 10 re-pins. Each of these has between 70 and 85, getting re-pinned again and again and again. Why is that? What is it about leek and cauliflower risotto and corn fritters and a weight watchers bruschetta chicken bake that make them viral wonders?

And that got me thinking – isn’t that what qualitative is all about? Figuring out the “why” behind the “what?”

Pinterest is incredibly valuable in regards to consumer insights. It is, in essence, a voluntary study in advertising and communications. It instantly shows us what catches people’s eyes and how are they talking about it through the number of likes and re-pins and the captions. Captions tend to be written in one of two styles, both of which are vital to communications: what is important to people about what this is, or how does it make them feel?

It is important to keep in mind that pins tend to be aspirational. Boards are not full of recipes people have actually cooked, homes they actually live in, or products they actually own. Instead, they provide a view into the ideals pinners hold. What would they cook, where would they live, what would they own if they could have or do anything?

Additionally, it is a trend tracker. While it does not represent everyone (not even close! In our PluggedIn Nation Community only 1/2 had heard of Pinterest and of those, less than 25% use it), it does give us an overview of what pinners think is important and may be able to help us stay ahead of the next big thing. It reveals what has the potential to be shared, and what doesn’t. What are those ideas, like a Bruschetta Chicken Bake, that just don’t lose momentum? And what’s just an Avocado, Cream Cheese, and Salsa Puff Pastry?

And once you’ve used Pinterest for all that – how do you figure out WHY?

In a year like this, when virtually every pundit and journalist has postulated that the GOP nomination process will drag on until mid-June, it makes perfect sense that the race effectively end tonight, March 6th. That may in fact be the case, as Mitt Romney will likely win several states tonight including Ohio and tally up more than 200 delegates. While a lot can happen and the large lady hasn’t sung yet, she is clearing her throat.

Here is our take on the current political environment this morning:

• Romney has achieved sustained momentum for the first time in this campaign. And, he is the first candidate to do so. The caucuses last Saturday in Washington state helped a lot. Washington was Ron Paul territory and Romney was able to take the Michigan and Arizona wins and turn them into a momentum builder.
• For the first time, it appears that Governor Romney is finding his voice. Of course, a verbal gaffe can always be right around the corner, but Romney has steadied himself the last 10 days. We may look back on Michigan as a critical turning point for this candidate. He seems more comfortable and as things turn back to the economy (as they will) this should only increase.
• Team Santorum may have banked too much on the values play in Michigan and now, in Ohio. We have said it before and will say it again, the rise of the Tea Party in 2009/10 was almost exclusively about spending and government overreach. The main stream media has tried to equate the tea party with social conservatives, but they are not the same. Now, there is a strong social conservative strain in the GOP, but that alone may not be enough to carry someone like Santorum in a down economy.
• The GOP nominating process has hurt Romney and the GOP brand, but that is transitory and there is plenty of time to heal. Yes, the latest NBC/WSJ poll shows Romney’s unfavorable number very high, but that is because he has been fighting a bruising primary contest. Furthermore, many voters have no impression of the governor at all. President Obama is in a solid position at this point, but I agree with Karl Rove’s assessment that the Obama team’s posture is cocky. The economic numbers don’t support that level of optimism. Yes, perceptions are improving but things remain fragile. And finally, as gas prices move up, the President’s approval rating will surely begin to drop.

Today is Super Tuesday and there are 11 contests where over 400 delegates are being fought for. The following is a quick snapshot of some of the key races and our projection:

1. Ohio. Team Romney decided to go for broke and spent significant resources over the last week on advertising. Their GOTV effort is very strong. Our sense is that momentum is with Romney and he is likely to win the state outright by 2 or 3 points. There will be a share of delegates, but one thing is clear, this will be a huge and perhaps debilitating loss for Santorum. Not sure he can recover from this. Money will likely dry up.
2. Georgia. This is home state for Gingrich and he should win by at least 12 to 15 points. This will keep Gingrich in the race for the time being. Romney will finish second.
3. Tennessee. This is one that Santorum led by 20 points a month ago. Yet, late polls show a dwindling lead. Santorum should win, but a Romney surprise upset could shut the door for Santorum.
4. Romney will win MA, VT, VA and ID.
5. Paul will get North Dakota and Alaska caucuses.

Watch the vote and the exits in Ohio tonight. This state will be most pivotal in the Fall election and a test for Romney’s electability.

Special thanks to John Zirinsky, Jennifer Myers and Allison Quigley for their contributions to the Monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

(Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008 but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.)

The looming threat to Romney winning the GOP nomination was never Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul it was always from the right. The assumption for team Romney was that it would come from Rick Perry. When Perry abandoned his run after a disastrous campaign, Romney’s campaign apparatus could breathe a sigh of relief. Well that was premature. Beating Gingrich in Florida was easy compared to this. Santorum in Michigan is a political nightmare for Mitt Romney. And here is the biggest problem: even if Romney narrowly squeaks out a win tonight, Santorum may claim a moral victory by capturing more delegates. And things only get worse for Romney next week on Super Tuesday.

There is no doubt in our mind that over the last 72 hours we have seen a momentum shift toward Santorum in Michigan. There are a myriad of factors that have contributed to this:

• Romney cannot seem to put together back to back good days. It feels like a lifetime ago, but Romney probably won last Tuesday’s CNN debate in Mesa, Arizona. Santorum was stuck playing defense, with all three of his opponents ganging up on him about his Senate record. Romney then proceeded to take the air out of his surge with several gaffes that gave the media another reason to highlight the Governor’s inability to “connect” with the average voter. It also appears to have given voters pause.
• Gingrich’s loss in vote share is likely shifting to Santorum. This is hard to determine without seeing the actual polling data, but our sense is that soft Gingrich voters are at least temporarily moving to Santorum.
• We always knew that one candidate would make the “values” play and the time was right for Santorum. His team wisely saw a hole and like a good running back ran right to it. The mainstream media can only talk about how poorly swing voters will reject this type of red-meat rhetoric in a general election–which has some truth. However, they virtually ignore the fact that for a sizable segment of the GOP primary electorate this is music to their ears. Santorum is benefitting from this.
• The Santorum campaign is simply executing better than team Romney right now. The Ford Field speech staging snafu and Governor Romney’s inability to articulate a consistent positive theme have contributed to his stagnation in the polls. On the other hand, team Santorum has had a better closing positive message as well as some smart tactical moves including the robo-calls to Democrats to vote against Romney. Unions are helping with this of course.
• Our projection is that Romney will barely edge out Santorum in the popular vote, 40% – 38.5%. Santorum’s early surge was replaced by a Romney pushback and that has now almost entirely faded. Romney is aided by the fact that 30% have already voted and the assumption is that he will win that group by 3 to 5%. But for those who vote tonight, Santorum will likely win by a point or two. As Nate Silver notes, Michigan is a state which awards many delegates proportionally based on the winner of each Congressional district. So, while Michigan is undoubtedly the state with the more exciting storyline, it’s not particularly important in the delegate race between Romney and Santorum. It will, however, be virtually the only story tonight.

There are other things to consider as we move forward:

• Gingrich is no longer campaigning in Arizona and Michigan, focusing on Super Tuesday states and Georgia in particular. While punting on two states where he was far behind is a smart strategy, we can’t help but feel his candidacy is now entering a period of inexorable decline. Still, with the money he has raised and the benefits of his continued front-runner treatment from the media, Gingrich will likely remain in the race for a while to come.
• Ron Paul continues to help Romney by attacking the records of his more conservative opponents. We’ve seen this with Cain, Gingrich and now Santorum. Paul staying in the race helps Romney by keeping Santorum from totally outflanking him to the right, particularly among Tea Party voters. Santorum has taken the conservative high ground from Romney, but Paul’s well-researched criticism helps keep him honest.
• Don’t waste too much time thinking about a brokered convention. As Karl Rove points out, there are a number of obstacles. In our mind, the biggest is the nature of modern campaigns. Republican party leaders and any potential dark horse candidates all realize that not launching a campaign until this summer would put the GOP nominee at a tremendous disadvantage to Obama in fundraising, organization and simple voter familiarity. And even if some within the party would prefer to see Jeb Bush or Chris Christie as the nominee, no one wants to send out a candidate with one hand tied behind his back.
• Despite all the talk about Super PACs, this year’s GOP field is raising less money than 2008. At this point in the 2008 race, the combined field of Republicans had raised nearly a third more money. Even when the money from the new Super PAC campaign funding vehicles is added, Republicans this year have raised about25 million less. Romney, this year’s fundraising leader, is on a similar pace to his 2008 campaign. What’s also interesting is how all three of Romney’s remaining challengers are on a similar fundraising pace for January–although Gingrich’s Super PAC has benefitted from the support of some truly committed donors.
• Finally, we predict Romney will defeat Santorum, 42%-32% in Arizona. While this race looked too close to call a couple weeks ago, the recent widening in Romney’s poll lead coupled with his victory in last week’s debate make us confident that Romney will win. Voters have also been steadily moving away from Gingrich since Santorum’s rise in the polls began, so we expect him to finish below his recent poll performance, near 12%, and Paul to end up in mid single-digits.

It’s important to think about the GOP race in the context of the current political environment. This morning the Commerce Department announced that durable goods orders dropped 4% in January, falling at the fastest pace in 3 years. Economists expected a drop of 1.1%. So while things are looking up, Obama is not out of the woods yet.

Here is a quick snapshot of the President’s re-election environment:

• The mood of the country is 34% right direction/60% wrong track (Real Clear Politics average, Feb. 2-20). That’s the highest right direction number since May 31 and a significant improvement from 17% right direction on October 13.
• Obama’s approval rating is a net positive for the first time since May 2011. The Real Clear Politics average for Feb. 5-25 is 47.6% approve/47.1% disapprove.
• Obama leads at least three of the four Republican challengers. Rasmussen’s daily tracking among likely voters has President Obama leading Mitt Romney, 45%-43%, and leading Santorum 47%-42%.
• Romney wins only 79% of Republicans and leads by 3 among independents, while Obama takes 87% of Democrats. That’s actually a good sign for Republicans, because it suggests there are still votes to be had in their own base, while the President has nearly tapped out his own.

• Despite the Republican candidates’ recent fixation on social issues, Obama is actually perceived as the “extreme” candidate. Voters are significantly more likely to perceive that the President is too liberal than to perceive his Republican challengers as too conservative. In the Feb. 16-19 USA Today/Gallup poll, 51% said Obama was too liberal, compared to 38% who said Santorum is too conservative, and 33% who said the same about Romney. The numbers are nearly identical among independents.
• So far, the recent focus on birth control, gay rights, and other social issues doesn’t seem to have hurt the Republican candidates, but it’s unclear how long that trend will last.

Special thanks to John Zirinsky, Jennifer Myers and Allison Quigley for their contributions to the Monitor. Follow us on Twitter: @Steve_Lombardo.

(Please note that the author was an advisor to the Romney for President campaign in 2008 but is not affiliated with any campaign in 2012.)